LIVE · WILDCARD TIPS 2/2

CFI AFL TIPPING MODEL · 2026

See the game
beyond the ladder.

Weekly AFL tips with predicted winners, expected scores, margins and confidence — all published before the bounce.

Built from live form, team availability, matchup, rest, travel, venue, stakes and weather
NEXT FINALS TIPS

Published after teams are announced.

Why CFI waits

Confirmed teams trigger the full match run. Late availability, venue conditions and weather are then checked before the final winner, expected scores, margin and confidence are locked in before the bounce.

PUBLISHED RECORD

Latest published tips

Every winner, expected score and margin is timestamped here before the bounce.

WINNER ACCURACY100%RECORD2–0AVG MARGIN ERROR7 pts
GameCFI tipExpectedActualResult
Western Bulldogs v CollingwoodWestern Bulldogs86–7996–93✓ CorrectMargin error 4
Melbourne v CarltonCarlton96–8774–55✓ CorrectMargin error 10

EVERY FINAL · FULL CFI BREAKDOWN

The tip will be the conclusion, not the content.

CFI will publish the whole argument before each final: what the numbers say, what the matchup changes, where the model could be fooled and why the final margin survives that challenge. If Collingwood are involved, the heart gets a hearing — it just does not get voting control.

01Expected-score bridge02All 10 factor edges03Selected-team impact04Tactical matchup story05Historical parallel06How the tip loses07Confidence and margin08Locked publication time
CFI · FINALS2 / 2100% winner accuracy

Wildcard finals count. CFI correctly tipped the Bulldogs and Carlton before the bounce.

CFI · MARGIN ERROR7 ptsaverage absolute error

Four points on Bulldogs–Collingwood and ten on Melbourne–Carlton.

ACCOUNTABILITY LEDGER2 gamesboth published pre-bounce

No backfilling, no edited margins and wildcard finals count.

MARKET FAVOURITES · FINALS1 / 250% winner accuracy

Verified pre-game prices had Collingwood around $1.85 and the Bulldogs around $1.95. Carlton was the other favourite. CFI went 2/2 by opposing the market in the Bulldogs game.

Winner score

Correct tips divided by finals played.

Margin MAE

Average absolute error between predicted and actual margins. Lower wins.

Confidence calibration

Checks whether 70% calls actually win about 70% of the time.